Expectancy Calculator

Know your edge before you overtrade it. Enter your win rate and average R values to find out if your system makes money on average — and how much per trade.

Learn: What is Expectancy? →

Your System Parameters

Based on your historical trade data — use at least 30 closed trades.

Percentage of trades that end as winners (0–100)

Average profit on winning trades expressed as a multiple of risk (1R = 1× your initial risk)

Average loss on losing trades as a positive R-multiple (1R means you lose exactly your planned risk)

Your Expectancy

Expectancy per trade +0.35R
Edge verdict
Positive Edge
Expected R over 100 trades
+35R

Your system earns 0.35R per trade on average. Over 100 trades you'd expect +35R.

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Formula

Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win R) − (Loss Rate × Avg Loss R)

Win Rate is the fraction of trades that are winners. Loss Rate is 1 − Win Rate. Avg Win R and Avg Loss R are the average outcomes expressed as multiples of your initial risk per trade. A positive expectancy means your system makes money on average; negative means it loses.

Worked Example

System with 45% win rate

Inputs

Win Rate
45%
Average Win
2R
Average Loss
1R

Outputs

Loss Rate
55%
Expectancy
+0.35R per trade
Edge over 100 trades
+35R

Even winning less than half the time, this system is profitable because wins are twice the size of losses. Expectancy of +0.35R means you earn 0.35R per trade on average.

Common Mistakes

  • Calculating expectancy from fewer than 30 trades — noise dominates the signal.
  • Using P&L in currency instead of R-multiples — makes it hard to compare systems.
  • Treating expectancy as a fixed property rather than monitoring it ongoing.
  • Ignoring brokerage and slippage when calculating average win/loss.
  • Confusing expectancy with win rate — a 30% win rate system can have positive expectancy with large average wins.

Related Calculators

Risk Reward Calculator Risk Of Ruin Calculator Position Size Calculator

Frequently Asked Questions

How many trades do I need to calculate expectancy? +

At least 30 trades for a rough estimate, ideally 50 or more. With fewer trades, random variance can make a losing system look profitable or a winning system look unprofitable.

Is a 0.2R expectancy good? +

Yes — at 1% risk per trade and 100 trades per year, a 0.2R expectancy yields approximately 20R of profit, or roughly 20% annually before compounding. Context matters: 0.2R from 200 trades/year is better than 0.5R from 10 trades/year.

Can expectancy be negative and the system still be useful? +

Not in the long run. A system with negative expectancy will lose money on average, regardless of position sizing. Fix the system first — reduce average losses, improve average wins, or improve win rate.

Does Tracktions calculate expectancy automatically? +

Yes — Tracktions computes expectancy from all your closed trades in real time. You can see it on the Analytics dashboard, filtered by strategy, instrument, or time period.

Educational tool only. Tracktions is a trade-journaling and analytics tool, not investment advice — we are not SEBI-registered advisers and do not provide trade recommendations or assurances of returns. Every result is based solely on the numbers you enter; confirm your historical data before drawing conclusions.